Picking off the Continuation Bet (with small pocket pairs)
A common scenario that will occur when you hold a small pocket pair is that
you’ll limp into the pot from early or middle position and someone will raise from late
position. You’ll then call the raise and see a flop. The flop then comes with 2 or 3 over
cards to your pocket pair, and this is where the men are separated from the boys. How do
you play your small pocket pair out of position against a pre-flop raiser? Before you
decide your course of action, you should consider the following:
How often is your opponent raising before the flop? If your opponent
is raising more than 6% (Your tracking software will indicate this to you)
of the time before the flop, then you know they are raising more than just
premium type hands such as AK, AQ, AJ, Big pairs, etc… When this is
the case then it becomes slightly more difficult to deduce whether the flop
connected with them or not.
How aggressive if your opponent? If you opponent is pretty aggressive
(PFA > 3) then you know there’s a much higher chance that their bet is a
bluff. If they are more passive, or if you’ve seen your opponent check
behind a few times with unpaired over cards, then their bet is probably
not a bluff.
How coordinated is the flop? If the flop is pretty coordinated, where it
contains a flush draw and an obvious straight draw that your opponent
could have, then it’s much more likely your opponent is semi-bluffing. If
they have two over cards, then it may be a place where they’re a slight
favorite and you may not want to invest anymore in that kind of pot.
How likely did this flop hit my opponent? A flop that contains a King
and a Queen, is a bad flop for a medium pair. It’s best to not get involved.
If it contains only one of these, then it’s a judgment call, the Queen high
flop being slightly better for your hand than the King high flop.
One of the most important factors when considering whether to continue with
small pocket pair past the flop is the texture of the flop. You can use a mental plus and
minus system that will help you determine whether the flop is worth continuing on with
your small pocket pair.
After evaluating the flop, if it’s in the positive, then your hand will likely be good a solid majority of the time IFyour opponent doesn’t have a pocket pair higher than yours. So always take into account the type of player you are against as well. If you are against someone very passive who hardly ever bets the flop, you may want to fold regardless.
Now let’s take a look at some good and bad flops with a small pocket pair such as
sixes:
Good Flops
Great flop, only one over card to your hand.
Two over cards, but this flop likely missed most opponents.
Poker Zion Module 6.1
Two over cards, and only one broadway.
Three over cards, only one broadway.
Bad Flops
Two over cards and both are broadways, one a king.
Two over cards and one is an Ace.
3 over cards, coordinated and a Jack and Queen.
After you’ve evaluated the texture of the flop, you’ll want to decide what your
best course of action will be. There are 3 reasonable plays you have with a small pocket
pair and they are as follows:
1. Lead at the flop by betting. Not a bad play, but if you’re against an even semiaggressive
opponent, they may easily come back over the top of you with their
un-paired over cards, or have a legitimate hand and raise. Then you’re really
stuck.
2. Check with the intention of calling a bet. A reasonable play as an opponent with
two over cards will only pair up on the flop ~30% of the time. That of course
means that you’ll have the best hand ~70% of the time WHEN they don’t have a
higher pocket pair than you.
3. Check with the intention of check-raising. A much bolder move that will commit
many more of your chips when you have bad position. Mathematically this is a
much more difficult play to show a long term profit in. If the pot contains 12BB
and your opponent bets 8BB, you’ll then have the make around a pot sized raise
which would be 28BB. You’ll then have to risk 28BB to win 20BB, so you’re
move has to work a high percentage of the time. You could of course raise less, to
20BB, you then only have to have someone fold half the time to make the play
profitable. Either way it’s a much riskier move.
Of the three plays the checking and calling is the best play once again. It’s not bad to
occasionally lead at the flop if you are unsure about your opponent, but if your opponent
is somewhat aggressive, it’s usually best to check and let him continue with his
aggression. Remember that approximately 70% of flops are missed, and once they are
missed your opponent is usually only between 25-22% to improve by the river.
It’s also very important to not go over board with your small pocket pairs. If you
check and call on the flop, and then lead the turn for a ½ sized pot bet and get called, it’s
usually best to check the river to your opponent. If they bet, then it’s a judgment call, but
it’s usually best to fold.