Since everyone is trying to read each other, what happens if I bluff them by being totally random? I can bluff half of the time and the other half I don't. Would that work?

Just a newbie here. I was wonder if this is an effective strategy.

It will work, but only randomly. I wouldn't really consider it a good tactic because with other techniques you have better percentages for winning in your favor.

Yes and no, all good players use a measure of "randomness" in their play, however in any one situation there are profitable plays and unprofitable plays (talking long term), so if you are constantly taking the unprofitable play, sure you will be hard to read (unless you do it too often in which case you become fairly predictable also), and you may win a few hands with pure bluffs, but in the long term you will be coming up against players who either have figured out that you are not playing solid poker and ignore your bluffs, or they actually hold the nuts and check into you letting you bluff where they promptly send you broke. In the long run it is nowhere near a valid strategy.

Here is where some people are led astray, they hear pros talk about how difficult it can be to play in a field of amateurs as they are so random that it's almost impossible for them to get good reads, or people call any bet no matter what their odds and get lucky, etc, etc. Some rookie players hear this and think then that it translates to random play being the profitable way to go. What the reality is though is that when you are a good player sitting at a table of players who are willing to bluff or bet all their money on a 20% shot, and you are a good solid player, getting your money in as a 80% favourite, you only need to run into 5 such people to statistically be handed a bad beat, and be heading home. What gets missed though is the fact that although the pro has been taken out by an amateur, because the pro was playing a solid game, it will have taken on average 5 amateurs playing 2 card bingo to have sent him home, so for the 1 pro, there are at least 4 'donkeys' also heading home. This is why pros will avoid playing fields where there are a large number of very unskilled players and when they do they will normally be eliminated early, you'll find that none of the entrants in events like this are able to place well with any consistency as it just gets turned into a game of bingo. Here's an example I witnessed very recently:

Pro is under the gun, looks down at AA. He opens with a 5x BB bet (knowing that the table is very loose, he's bet a bit more than would be normal) blinds are 20/40 so he's bet 200 out of a 2000 stack. Donkey number 1 is to his left, with pocket 3's, he has no concept of the fact that a large raise by the player under the gun is a very clear danger signal, he hasn't been paying attention to know that the pro has been playing a tight/solid game and that a raise here should be a clear warning that he has a very strong hand. He also does not have any concept of the fact that pocket 3's are a limping hand at best at a full table in early position, against any raise like this they are an instant fold, however he doesn't fold, he re-raises all in!!, he's only got 600 chips left, so they all go into the middle. 4 more players call the 600 bet with hands of J9, J6, A4 and 78. Action comes back to the pro with AA who re-raises all in, knowing that his Aces are not going to play well against more than 2 people, and knowing that no poker player in his right mind can call this bet unless they are also holding AA or KK, so he's assured unless they are all donkeys that he will get the matchup he needs of 2 or 3 players. Unfortunately, none of these players are "in their right mind", lol, so they all call, and we have just about the whole table all in.

Now for those who do not understand the odds in relation to Aces, against any of these hands individually the aces are going to win 80-90% of the time, so for any of these people to call knowing (which they would if they understood the basic concepts and knew to pay attention to the table) that they are so far behind, is just like playing the lotto and hoping to win on a consistent basis, it is simply impossible. The problem comes though when you get Aces vs a number of hands, like in this siuation, even though the pro in this case has done everything right, the fact that he is at a table of donkeys has resulted in him having odds as low as 30-40% to win this hand. Does this make the play by any one of these people correct? Definitely not, in all likelihood five people are going home in this hand, and it's a complete toss up as to who they are, definitely not a way to be able to play consistent winning poker, you may as well be playing roulette and throwing every cent you have on 13. This is in fact what happened, in the end the guy all in with 33 made a full house, and the suited J6 made a flush to take the side pot. Now here is where the problem gets even worse, the guy with 3-3 and the guy with J-6 will remember this time that they got lucky and won big, but if they really sat down and figured out what happened, they could clearly see they made a huge error getting all their money in with almost zero chance of winning, just as much of an error as the other three donkeys who walked away with nothing. This is what we call "results based poker" and is clearly a very poor way to evaluate your game (particularly when your results are skewed as you always remember the big win you shouldn't have won, and forget the hundreds of times you lose on J6, if you actually sat down and figured it out long term, you would see that you have lost a lot more than you have won with these sorts of moves).

Somes very good explanations of why there is such a thing that is called 'beginner's luck'.

Interesting about the pocket rockets!

It's a little off topic, but if you are interested, here are the odds of winning with AA vs various numbers of random hands.

AA against 1 person - Around 85% to win
Against 2 people you are around 74%
3 you are down to 64%
4-57%
5-49%
6-44%
7-39%
8-35%

So as you can see the second you get 3 or more opponents in the pot holding AA your chances of winning start to drop dramatically, at 4 your basically flipping a coin, 5 or more you are actually the underdog compared to the field.

The main reason you hear the "I never win on aces" line is because they don't know how to play them, slow playing them in some cases can be profitable but if you think there's a chance of getting 4 or more callers you are throwing money away.

Funny you mention this - I was playing NLTH on my smarphone on the tube today (see concetesoftware.com) and I have this theory that the AI cheats - I get dealt pocket rockets and managed to pull every other player in (I always start off short stacked with $100 against everyone elses $1000, just for fun) - and at least 4 of the other 7 players were in. The flop comes up QQKQ2 and everyone is betting like mad, and sure enough, one of the players had the Q, so my AA lost ;)

Not really related at all but I wanted to get it off my chest ;)

This is really a very interesting thread - I am going to pin it for a while!

to put it simple.. u must be as unpredictable as you can.. i wouldnt call it randomness but you cant play every hand the very same way.. you must adjust your play according to your opponents

i think that the best tacktic is to just be neutral all the time...

a great tactic to use is to not always play the same level of hands and betting patters.mix it up a little so your oponents cant get a read on you and c what tipe of player you are

Read something from Doyle.. There are a lot to learn..

I tend to play very tight for a long time in tournament play (only play AA, KK, QQ, AK and limp in with Ax suited and other pairs). That allows me to have some flurries of random play for a few hands and noone can read it. This can win some big hands but if you come up against a big hand it can really backfire.

I don't really randomize my moves, and I would suggest that most lower stakes players don't worry about it. If it's simply polarizing or widening ranges you're talking about, then yes, that's something everyone should take into consideration when decision making.

Now for those who do not understand the odds in relation to Aces, against any of these hands individually the aces are going to win 80-90% of the time, so for any of these people to call knowing (which they would if they understood the basic concepts and knew to pay attention to the table) that they are so far behind, is just like playing the lotto and hoping to win on a consistent basis, it is simply impossible.

 

Lisa11

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I sort of agree with eerything that has been said above. 

Randomness can be  good thing but only if it is calculated.  You can't just be purely random without knowing what you are doing, what your odds of success are and what your opponent's reactions are likely to mean.

Mixing up the hands you play and how you play them can be a good thing, but pure randomness probably isn't.  You might as well just go all-in everyhand and see what happens.

Your strategy will sometime work and few times not!!

Yoyu must firstly have a control over your body movements so that others can't judge you!!

!!

All The Best

I don't think that will work ... Bluffing is a key element for a winning poker player , you have to use it and you have to use it smart ... Randomness how ever will get you nowhere.